Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demario Douglas from EV Insight

Demario DouglasReceiving Yards

Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
At only 26.68 seconds per play, the Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
In this week’s contest, Demario Douglas is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Kansas City’s unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the league.

Cons

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.9%) to wide receivers this year (61.9%).
This year, the strong Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a mere 7.5 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards