Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Demario DouglasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- At only 26.68 seconds per play, the Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
- In this week’s contest, Demario Douglas is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Kansas City’s unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the league.
Cons
- With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-least pass-centric team in football has been the Patriots.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.9%) to wide receivers this year (61.9%).
- This year, the strong Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a mere 7.5 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
