Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are projected by the projection model to call 66.2 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.2 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects David Njoku to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
David Njoku has been an integral part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
After accumulating 45.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has seen a big decline this year, currently boasting 29.0 per game.
David Njoku’s 66.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a material decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 77.2% figure.
David Njoku’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards