NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
- The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in football.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, giving up 6.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
