Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).

Pros

The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) to tight ends this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, giving up 6.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards