Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to notch 13.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has received 51.8% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Aaron Jones has run for quite a few more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards