NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Lions vs. Broncos
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- The model projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the feeble Lions defense has allowed the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 8.73 yards.
Cons
- With a 58.6% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL has been the Broncos.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.6 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
- After accumulating 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has seen a big downtick this season, currently averaging 77.0 per game.
- With a subpar 2.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in football in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
