First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect Cole Kmet to earn 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has put up a colossal 28.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 84.9%.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 6th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Chicago Bears.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
- Cole Kmet has been used less as a potential target this season (73.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 27.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
