Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this season (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).

Cons

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Christian Kirk has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.6% to 68.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 140.0) to WRs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards