Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-105) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accrue 9.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
- CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his offense’s air attack this year (29.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.7%).
- CeeDee Lamb has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a huge 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
