Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).

Pros

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects A.J. Brown to earn 9.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last year, A.J. Brown has shown good development this year, currently sitting at 121.0 per game.
A.J. Brown’s 79.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 70.9.
A.J. Brown has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (96.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

This game’s line suggests a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 50.1% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Eagles offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per snap.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards