Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-151) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Trevor Lawrence has passed for quite a few more yards per game (255.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 205.0 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.13 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards
227
Passing Yards
