Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 254.5 (-110) after it opened @ 247.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.
This week, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 76th percentile.
This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has given up a colossal 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
The New England cornerbacks profile as the 9th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 7.41 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last year.
This year, the tough Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a measly 4.3 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards