Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Chargers vs. Titans
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 307.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 307.5 (-115) after it opened @ 301.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 63.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.59 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 16th percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
303
Passing Yards
303
Passing Yards
