Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 152.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 152.5 (-114) after it opened @ 175.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
Justin Fields’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.3% to 63.3%.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
136
Passing Yards