Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-127) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Jalen Hurts’s throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.6% to 67.5%.
- Jalen Hurts has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.80 yards-per-target while ranking in the 81st percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.7%).
Cons
- The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.6 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards
187
Passing Yards
