NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Daniel JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Daniel Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 199.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 199.5 (-114) after it opened @ 197.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.50 seconds per snap.
- Daniel Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 67.5% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.
- The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in football.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year (68.5%).
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
