WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 139.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-most yards in the league (255.0 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a huge 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Dak Prescott has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (228.0) this year than he did last year (288.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
