NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Zonovan KnightRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Zonovan Knight’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-125/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.49 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 24th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 102 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
