Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Browns vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-133) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Browns as the 6th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 66.3 per game on average).
- This week, Jerome Ford is forecasted by the model to finish in the 76th percentile among running backs with 13.0 rush attempts.
- Jerome Ford has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this year (38.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (1.9%).
Cons
- The Browns may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 97.0 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
