NFL

Bets

December 7, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Tyler Conklin checks in as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 36.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has given up the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
The Texans pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards