Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Tyler Conklin checks in as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 36.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
- The Houston Texans defense has given up the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (56.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Texans pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
