Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (+106).
Pros
- In this week’s contest, Pat Freiermuth is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets.
- Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 67.8% to 76.2%.
- Pat Freiermuth checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a remarkable 7.86 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- The Patriots safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 6.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
