Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-107/-122).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-122) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (41.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Patriots.
Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to total 18.6 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The model projects Ezekiel Elliott to be much less involved in his team’s running game in this week’s game (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).

Cons

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
Ezekiel Elliott has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
With a very bad rate of 3.63 adjusted yards per carry (20th percentile) this year, Ezekiel Elliott has been as one of the bottom pure rushers in the NFL at the position.
Ezekiel Elliott is positioned as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.54 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh’s DT corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards