Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (+106).

Pros

In this week’s contest, Pat Freiermuth is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets.
Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 67.8% to 76.2%.
Pat Freiermuth checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a remarkable 7.86 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 76th percentile.
The Patriots safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
The New England Patriots pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs this year, surrendering 6.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards