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Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

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Nico Collins

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 14

Jets vs. Texans

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).

Pros

  • The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to notch 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
  • Nico Collins’s 24.2% Target Rate this year marks a noteable gain in his pass game usage over last year’s 19.2% mark.
  • Nico Collins has posted many more air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
  • Nico Collins’s 85.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant improvement in his receiving skills over last season’s 48.0 figure.
Cons

  • This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
  • The New York Jets defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 99.0) vs. wideouts this year.
  • The Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight Next Spotlight Props: Top Prop Picks for Steelers-Patriots, Week 14