Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to notch 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- Nico Collins’s 24.2% Target Rate this year marks a noteable gain in his pass game usage over last year’s 19.2% mark.
- Nico Collins has posted many more air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
- Nico Collins’s 85.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant improvement in his receiving skills over last season’s 48.0 figure.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- The New York Jets defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 99.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- The Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
