Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-103/-127).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-103) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Mike Evans to total 9.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- After totaling 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has undergone big improvement this year, currently sitting at 134.0 per game.
- Mike Evans checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a fantastic 74.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
- This year, the daunting Falcons defense has surrendered a puny 133.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in the league.
- This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a meager 61.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
