Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-103/-127).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-103) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The projections expect Mike Evans to total 9.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
After totaling 117.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has undergone big improvement this year, currently sitting at 134.0 per game.
Mike Evans checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a fantastic 74.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
This year, the daunting Falcons defense has surrendered a puny 133.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in the league.
This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a meager 61.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards