Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Keenan Allen has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
- Keenan Allen’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.1% to 64.9%.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (64.5%).
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 7.66 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
