Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projections to run 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Drake London’s 2.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a meaningful gain in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 0.0% rate.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Drake London’s 23.5% Target% this year marks a significant reduction in his passing offense volume over last year’s 29.1% rate.
- Drake London has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
