Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-130).

Pros

The model projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.0 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has accrued a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Diontae Johnson’s 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 63.2.
With a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson places among the top wide receivers in the game in football.
Diontae Johnson’s 4.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a material growth in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 2.7% mark.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
This year, the tough New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 3.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards