NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-130).
Pros
- The model projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.0 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson’s 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 63.2.
- With a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson places among the top wide receivers in the game in football.
- Diontae Johnson’s 4.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a material growth in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 2.7% mark.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- This year, the tough New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
