Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Browns vs. Jaguars
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are forecasted by the projections to run 65.7 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.2 plays per game.
- With an impressive 92.3% Route Participation% (89th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
- The model projects Calvin Ridley to total 7.4 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.2 per game) this year.
- With a bad 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (21st percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league in space.
- This year, the daunting Browns defense has yielded a puny 119.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (55.5%) versus wideouts this year (55.5%).
- As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Cleveland’s DE corps has been great this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
