Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-115) after it opened @ 265.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.3 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.
With a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.
This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes’s 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a material decline in his throwing prowess over last season’s 325.0 figure.
Patrick Mahomes’s 7.45 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a noteworthy decline in his passing efficiency over last year’s 8.5% figure.
The Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
The Buffalo cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards