Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-115) after it opened @ 265.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.3 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.
- With a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL.
- This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a material decline in his throwing prowess over last season’s 325.0 figure.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 7.45 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a noteworthy decline in his passing efficiency over last year’s 8.5% figure.
- The Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
- The Buffalo cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
