NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 258.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
- In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
- With an exceptional total of 281.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the top passers in the league this year.
- Josh Allen’s 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy boost in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 64.2% mark.
Cons
- In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 210.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
- This year, the strong Chiefs defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a mere 7.2 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards
276
Passing Yards
