Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 258.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional total of 281.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the top passers in the league this year.
Josh Allen’s 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy boost in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 64.2% mark.

Cons

In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 210.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
This year, the strong Chiefs defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a mere 7.2 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards