Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 222.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this week’s game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.0.
- Baker Mayfield’s 223.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a substantial growth in his passing prowess over last year’s 63.0 rate.
- As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta’s group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
- With a poor 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the least accurate passers in the league.
- Baker Mayfield checks in as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 18th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in football versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
