Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 222.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week’s game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.0.
Baker Mayfield’s 223.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a substantial growth in his passing prowess over last year’s 63.0 rate.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta’s group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
With a poor 62.3% Adjusted Completion% (18th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the least accurate passers in the league.
Baker Mayfield checks in as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 18th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in football versus the Falcons defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards