Week 13 Thanksgiving DFS Slate Breakdown

Small slates are the best – ownership concentrates to the point where the slate comes down to who fades the right chalk and who fades it the best way. My article is going to be a little different than usual as a result. It will basically be the opposite of 10 Under 10% – instead of pointing out a bunch of under owned plays I like, I’m pointing out the over-owned plays I want to fade and the best ways to fade them. Let’s get to it.

Players to Fade on The Thanksgiving Slate

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Rico Dowdle is the worst chalk on the slate in my opinion. Yes, the matchup is good, but he may not have the skill set to totally take advantage of it. New York’s primary weakness against the run is its vulnerability to explosive plays. They’ve allowed the highest explosive rush rate and the most explosive rushing yards. However, Dowdle has a long rush of just 19 yards on the entire season. 

Plus, I just think the field is way too confident in Dallas after their win against Washington. This is still a bad Dallas team, and the Giants’ defense has a great front seven. Plus, it’s also a great matchup for the lower-owned Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Drew Lock might be better than Daniel Jones (he’s definitely better than Tommy Devito). So, fade Dowdle by:

• Playing Tyrone Tracy Jr.
• Playing either CeeDee Lamb or the Giants DST
• Playing Drew Lock and Malik Nabers, too? If the Giants overperform, they can all hit together

Bears Pass Attack

After an impressive showing against the vaunted Minnesota defense, the Bears pass-catchers are all getting love against a Lions defense that is more vulnerable from a fantasy perspective than a real-life perspective. They’re a good matchup for WRs only because teams are forced to throw a ton against them. While that could certainly happen again in this one, it’s also possible that the passing attack gets shut down as it has plenty of times this season. Just as the field is overreacting to Dallas’ performance last week, I think the field is overreacting to Chicago’s first two weeks with the new offensive coordinator. Which means, fade the Chicago passing attack by:

• Playing the Lions DST – when Caleb Williams has struggled, he’s taken sack after sack after sack
• Playing D’Andre Swift? We’ve seen games where he accounts for the majority of their yards

Jahmyr Gibbs & Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

This is a difficult one, especially because I love the matchup for Jahmyr Gibbs But with both of these guys projected around 40% ownership (or more) in SEs, it makes a ton of sense to hope production comes from somewhere else on Detroit. We haven’t seen a volume game from Sam LaPorta yet, but it could come at any point. However, Jameson Williams is a slate-breaker. He’s had volume at times and he has the potential to take every reception to the house. Explosive TDs take entire possessions away from Gibbs and St. Brown, so when Williams hits, those two are much less likely to succeed (unless Detroit hangs 50+ on Chicago like they did to Jacksonville). And of course, David Montgomery could also steal all the TDs, so fade these two by:

• Playing Jameson Williams
• Playing Sam LaPorta, and/or
• Playing David Montgomery

Other Tips and Tricks for the Thanksgiving Slate

On these smaller slates, correlation is also more important than ever. The likelihood that one offense separates from the rest in a meaningful way is fairly high, which opens the door for “over-stacks.” Every lineup you build today should include at least two offensive players paired with their QB, but you don’t have to stop there, especially with the better QBs like Jared Goff or Jordan Love It is perfectly acceptable to use three or even four offensive weapons with the QB. For example, you could do Jared Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta This is an especially valuable way to play chalk that you can’t stomach fading. Even though you’re playing the chalk, you’re doing so in a contrarian way. The sims liked most of the Detroit over-stacks I played around with.

My favorite over-stack, however, is New York. Drew Lock, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers and Theo Johnson The sims love it, especially with CeeDee Lamb as the bring-back, fading Dowdle.
Lastly, remember what I always say about slates like these – let every decision you make affect the next one. The example that TwoGun and I did on stream with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a perfect example – most of those lineups stunk, but the few that were built well simmed extremely well because each decision affected the rest. Gibbs and Montgomery together means they likely both score 20-25 DK points, not 35+. That means no other expensive RB posts big scores, so it’s better to use a WR or TE in the flex with an expensive WR or two on the team (since it’s less likely that they have to beat a 30-35 point RB score). So on and so forth, just as we discussed on stream.