Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect Tony Pollard to earn 17.9 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- Tony Pollard has been much more involved in his offense’s run game this year (63.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (41.6%).
- Tony Pollard has generated 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (90th percentile).
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s group of safeties has been very bad this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Right now, the 8th-least run-oriented offense in football (36.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cowboys.
- With respect to a defense’s impact on tempo, the Cowboys defense has caused opposing squads to play 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year at 28.19 seconds per snap.
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
