Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-120) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to run on 43.6% of their downs: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per snap.
- James Conner’s 60.1% Snap% this season shows a meaningful diminishment in his offensive usage over last season’s 79.5% mark.
- James Conner has generated 64.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (90th percentile).
Cons
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
- As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year.
- The Steelers linebackers grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
