Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to earn 24.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has received 85.1% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Titans are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards