Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to earn 24.1 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has received 85.1% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Titans are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
