Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling with backup quarterback Mike White in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Cons

Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards