Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Vikings vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling with backup quarterback Mike White in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
