Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+104/-136).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+104) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Titans to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.5% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In this week’s game, Derrick Henry is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.9 carries.
- Among all RBs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 99th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 70.6% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) vs. the Colts defense this year.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.2 plays per game.
- Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
