Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 13.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 57.5% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

The Saints are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
Alvin Kamara’s ground efficiency (3.93 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (21st percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards