Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 89.5 (-115) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Tyreek Hill has posted many more receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.2%) versus wide receivers this year (70.2%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.1 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards
106
Receiving Yards
