Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 98.5 yards (-150/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 98.5 (+110) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
- Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.4 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- With an extraordinary 33.0% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
- Tyreek Hill has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (117.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
- After accruing 131.0 air yards per game last year, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decrease this year, currently sitting at 113.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards
112
Receiving Yards
