Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 98.5 yards (-150/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 98.5 (+110) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Tyreek Hill to accrue 11.4 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
With an extraordinary 33.0% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Tyreek Hill has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (117.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
After accruing 131.0 air yards per game last year, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decrease this year, currently sitting at 113.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards