Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Stephen SullivanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Stephen Sullivan’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 62.4 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.4 per game) this year.
- Stephen Sullivan grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching a fantastic 88.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Panthers are forecasted by the projections to call only 64.5 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has yielded a puny 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
