NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-113).
Pros
- At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.
- The model projects the Saints as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
- This year, the deficient Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a massive 7.91 yards.
Cons
- When talking about pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.
- Derek Carr checks in as one of the least effective passers in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.48 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 16th percentile.
- The Detroit Lions defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
291
Passing Yards
291
Passing Yards
