Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-113).

Pros

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Saints as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
This year, the deficient Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a massive 7.91 yards.

Cons

When talking about pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year.
Derek Carr checks in as one of the least effective passers in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.48 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 16th percentile.
The Detroit Lions defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
291
Passing Yards