Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per snap.
- Marquise Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- In this contest, Marquise Brown is predicted by the model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
- This year, the weak Steelers defense has allowed a staggering 179.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-most in football.
Cons
- The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cardinals profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
- Marquise Brown’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteable decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 60.0 rate.
- Marquise Brown’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 62.8% to 55.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
