Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight

Marquise BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per snap.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
In this contest, Marquise Brown is predicted by the model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
This year, the weak Steelers defense has allowed a staggering 179.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-most in football.

Cons

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cardinals profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
Marquise Brown’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a noteable decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 60.0 rate.
Marquise Brown’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 62.8% to 55.7%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards