Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (+110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- Logan Thomas has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
- This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a staggering 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
