Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
- This week, Hunter Henry is predicted by the projections to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.
- After totaling 28.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has produced significantly more this season, now pacing 39.0 per game.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Hunter Henry’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 72.5% to 66.0%.
- Hunter Henry’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a mere 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last season.
- Hunter Henry’s 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial decline in his efficiency in space over last year’s 4.9% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
