Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a pretty robust slate of NBA games for a football Sunday. We have two early start games with six others going off at 6 p.m. ET or later. That gives us a lot of places to look for some fantasy production.
Make sure to get over to FTNBets.com and check out the projections, NBA Model, and player prop charts before you make your plays for tonight. Here are a few of my best bets for the NBA total market as well as points, assists and rebounding player prop markets for Sunday.
Best NBA Total bet
Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons UNDER 229
I am a little late to the party here, as this opened at 230.5, but it’s down to 228 on PointsBet and 228.5 on most other books. I would not chase below that 228 number, but I do think it’s playable at 228.5 or this 229.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Kevin Durant OVER 27.5
Kevin Durant broke a streak of four straight games with 30+ last time out against the Raptors. Today, he draws a matchup against the Boston Celtics. Boston has a reputation as a defensive team, but they are allowing the 17th-most points per 100 possessions this season, which makes them basically league average. Durant projects for 30 points again, so we have a slight edge on the over at 27.5.
Best NBA Assists Prop Bet
Devin Booker UNDER 6.5 assists
I was expecting this number to be 5.5, and even at that number I leaned under. This 6.5 assist number for Devin Booker is as high as -140 to the under on FanDuel and PointsBet, so we are looking at almost 30 basis points better on Unibet. This did open at -110/-115 on most books, but many of them jacked it up as money rolled in. Unibet has been slow to adjust today, so I’m willing to chase the steam since that number has not moved.
Best NBA Rebounding Prop Bet
Evan Mobley OVER 11.5
This seems like a big number, but you have to remember that Jarrett Allen remains out. Without Allen, Evan Mobley has had 13 or more rebounds in three of the last four games. Kevin Love is back and will help, but Love plays less than half the game at this stage of his career. That means 30+ minutes for Mobley, and another double-digit rebound game is likely.
